Monday, May 24, 2010

Banish Negativity!

I once saw a movie where a device discovered under the ocean gave people the ability to replicate in real life what they dreamt. They were unaware of this ability and did not know what the device was for. Unfortunately things started going wrong and all sorts of horrible things happened to the crew of this underwater salvage operation, directly as a result of fellow crew members dreaming these horrors into life.

Almost every Holy scripture on earth alludes to the fact that your wishes /prayers/thoughts will become reality and all the motivational and spiritual literature that I have ever read mentioned the fact that your conscious thoughts will determine your future.

Why then do we default to being negative rather than being positive?!

Why do newspapers and magazines sell more copies when there is a war to write about or some disaster with blood, guts and despair than when there is something beautiful and positive going on?

Why do we get consumed by headlines that deal with bad stuff rather than good stuff? Why do we insist on elaborating on sad stories rather than good stories when we know that those things that we talk about most of the time will determine the things that we think about most of the time which will then ultimately become our reality?

What has this got to do with investments you must be screaming by now?

Well, I wish I could say "nothing" and that I am just sick of people being so negative (including myself), but unfortunately 50% or more of the decisions we make in our lives are made based on how we feel, rather than what we know.

So if you hear about the recessions, Greece going under, Railway strikes, FIFA failure, blackouts and generally the end of the word in 2012, you might just become so negative that you sell your house, cash in your share portfolio or liquidate your investment policy to enable you to move into a bunker south of Hot as Hell and stock up on Bully Beef and Beans.

That is why little gems like these I found in the Business Day of 20 May are so precious:
  • "Recovery hopes soar as retail sales turn the corner"
  • "IMF lifts SA growth forecast to 3%"
  • "SA edges up in global competitive index for second year in a row"

All I can say is that everything I really wished for in life became a reality.

We have to understand the power of positive thinking. We have to understand that we were given the ability to choose and participate in the creation of our future. We have to realise that even if something bad happens, you can choose for the negativity to consume you or you can evaluate it, accept it and then move on, taking it as a lesson learned or at least not something personal that life has against you.

My advice is:

  • Stop reading sad sensationalism.
  • Start reading uplifting stories of achievement.
  • Stop watching violent movies.
  • Start watching the beauty in people and places around you.
  • Stop taking life personally.
  • Start accepting that life is a balance between suffering and joy.

And lastly, if everybody can start thinking the share market up our collective consciousness can perhaps give me an early retirement!

Monday, May 10, 2010

It makes my head spin!

Sunday afternoon I settled down behind my computer, sipping a steaming cup of coffee and watching the rain pelting down outside. The Atlantic was chasing enormous waves onto the beach at Bloubergstrand and looked as turbulent as the equity markets during the last couple of days.

My aim for the afternoon was to select a couple of shares to buy the following day on the back of a huge pullback of +/- 11% on the JSE All Share index. The problems in Europe and specifically Greece caused investors to panic and I was hoping to find some companies that offered good value after being treated unfairly by the markets.

After doing some comparisons I ended up with about 15 shares that experienced a pullback of between 7% and 17% over the last 30 days. After a while I chose only 2 which I wanted to buy at the current levels and for the balance I would wait for another 5% pullback before I would venture into buying.

Monday morning saw me sharpening my pencil to write the cheques for the acquisition of the 2 shares only to see them opening about 5% higher than my buying level! I waited for a "dead cat bounce" pullback but that never happened and the market ended 4% higher at the end of the day.

Market movements we experienced over the last 14 days can only make you gasp and feel dizzy. The JSE had 2 record setting trading days in its 123 year history last week alone!

Now this is not a good thing. I believe in the gradual unlocking of value from a share based on fundamental good management, earnings and prospects.

We are seeing something never seen before in the world economies. The 2008 credit crisis caused governments to print billions of $ to save the financial systems as we know it and now The EU and IMF are doing the same to prevent a small bankrupt country(Greece) to die. The next in line are Ireland, Portugal and Italy.

I do understand that during 2008 governments printed money to save companies affected by bad investments. So the problem moved from companies to the Government. Who is going to save the Government when they go bankrupt? In the case of Greece it is the EU and IMF but what if the UK or USA go belly up?

At the end of the day I suppose that the problem started with man made cyber assets and will be solved with cyber assets. In the interim all I can say is that people lost all sense of value for money.

Important for me and you is to always understand the value we get when we pay for something.