One of the best books on investing is a book called "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham, the guy that taught Warren Buffett (the richest investor ever), how to think about investing.
Now the secret here (and what I love about it) is that he doesn't try to give you some magic formula to follow, he just gives you the fundamental truths.
Graham said that sooner or later, all bull markets must end badly.
- October 1987 US markets collapsed.
- Crash of 1929-1932 wiped 70% off the market
- 2008 Credit crunch saw SA shares drop 40% high to low.
The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism, sell into optimism and buy into pessimism.
He said that there is a persuasive argument for using the method of “rand-cost averaging” when investing into the market.
Graham observes that he has not known a single person who has consistently or lastingly made money by just following the market.
Graham observes that there is an illusion that shares in leading companies could be bought at any time and at any price, with the assurance not only of ultimate profit but also that any intervening loss would soon be recouped by a renewed advance of the market to new high levels.
Graham observes that you should buy your shares the same way you would buy your groceries, and not your luxury items (like perfume if you are a lady). Always ask “How Much?”
Buy companies that are trading not far above their tangible-asset value. (physical property and financial balances) Also called Book Value, NAV (divided by fully diluted issued shares).
Speculation is always fascinating. If you want to try it, put aside a portion of your money, the smaller the better, and never add to it.
Since you cannot predict the behaviour of markets, you must learn how to predict and control your own behaviour.
Ways of investing for the novice investor:
* Buy unit trust funds
* Give to investment manager to invest and manage
* Use “rand-cost averaging” to invest over time. (buy the same amount of shares every month over the period of investing) This is part of “formula investing”
* Diversify between Shares and Cash using a ratio of 75/25 after a crash and inverse as Bull market develops (re-balancing the portfolio).
Investing consists equally of three elements:
· You must thoroughly analyze a company, and the soundness of its underlying businesses.
· You must deliberately protect yourself against serious losses.
· You must aspire to “adequate”, not extraordinary, performance.
People who invest make money for themselves; people who speculate make money for their brokers.
People believed that the test of an investment technique was simply whether it “worked”. If they beat the market over any period, no matter how dangerous or dumb their tactics, people boasted that they were “right”. But the educated investor has no interest in being temporarily right. To reach your long-term goals, you must be sustainably and reliably right.
If you want to get to a specific destination you can get there by driving at a 120km/h, or you can get there in half the time by driving at 240km/h. If you survive, are you “right”? Should everybody try it because it worked? Trying to beat the market is much the same: In short streaks, so long as your luck holds out, they work. Over time, they will get you killed.
Oscar Wilde joked that a cynic “knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing” As an investor you should focus on the value of an investment, not only on its price.